黄河兰州段多环芳烃生态风险的初步评价

以黄河兰州段11个不同采样点3种多环芳烃的临测浓度及其对6～38种水生生物的LC50为基础资料,分别应用商值法、概率密度函数重叠面积和联合概率曲线3种风险浮价方法对黄河兰州段苯并(a)芘、荧蒽、芘的生态风险进行了评价.结果表明:黄河兰州段3种PAHs残留具有一定的生态风险.其中低暴露风险条件下(受威胁生物不超过1%),...     

Spatial Assessment of Land Degradation Risk for the Okavango River Catchment,Southern Africa

The Okavango catchment in southern Africa is subject to environmental as well as socio‐economic transformation processes such as population growth and climate change. The degradation of soil and vegetation by deforestation and overgrazing is one of the downsides of this development, reducing the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem functions and services. In this study, climate simulations are brought together with secondary socioeconomic, pedologic and remote‐sensing data in a GIS‐based assessment of the factors commonly associated with land degradation risk. A high resolution overview is provided for decision‐makers and stakeholders in the region by identifying priority intervention areas where a long‐term decline in ecosystem function and land productivity is most likely to occur. The approach combines 19 risk factors into seven individual ratings for topography, landcover, soil, demography, infrastructure, livestock pressure and climate. These ratings are then weighted and combined into an integrated degradation risk index (DRI). The results show that the land degradation risk is quite heterogeneously distributed in the study area and caused by different factors. Three hot‐spots are identified and compared, one of which is in the far northwestern part of the catchment, one around the local center Rundu and one on the outskirts of the Okavango Delta. We conclude that the approach is suitable to give an overview on degradation risk in the study area, although the classification process is a crucial procedure that should be standardized for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

丽水山区竹子害虫种类调查与为害评估

在不同时间对竹林中不同虫态的害虫进行调查。结合室内饲养观察，共采集各种标本5000余号，经整理鉴定（包括资料摘录），丽水山区竹子害虫种类有11目72科177属244种。其中一字竹笋象、刚竹毒蛾、卵圆蝽、竹织叶野螟、竹蝗、德清真片胸叶蜂、竹莫小叶蝉、南京裂爪螨等为害较严重。     

广州地区芥蓝、菜心和普通白菜中丙环唑和矮壮素残留及膳食暴露风险

为探明广州地区丙环唑和矮壮素在叶菜的残留以及膳食暴露风险情况,对2016年第2季度广州市9个区农贸市场和超市的芥蓝、菜心和普通白菜样品中丙环唑和矮壮素残留水平进行了分析。应用点评估和基于@Risk评估软件的概率评估方法 ,对这3种蔬菜中丙环唑和矮壮素残留膳食暴露风险进行了研究。结果显示,芥蓝、菜心、普通白菜中丙环唑残留均值为0.162 8~0.002 8 mg/kg,最高为芥蓝,与菜心和普通白菜差异显著,平均检出率为100%~70.25%,最高为芥蓝,与普通白菜差异显著。矮壮素残留平均值为0.010 9~0.001 0 mg/kg,最高为菜心,三者间差异不显著,平均检出率为14.99%~8.46%,最高为芥蓝,三者间差异不显著。通过膳食摄入3种蔬菜,丙环唑残留暴露急性风险熵为1.81~7.93,99%人群暴露慢性风险熵为1.02~25.03,0.1%人群存在芥蓝丙环唑膳食暴露慢性风险;矮壮素残留暴露急性风险熵为55.14~62.26,100%人群暴露慢性风险熵为3.26~8.11。3种蔬菜中丙环唑和矮壮素残留膳食暴露风险在可接受范围。     

我国草地贪夜蛾应急化学防控风险评估及对策

草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E.Smith)是世界性重大农业迁飞害虫, 在我国已呈严重暴发态势, 对我国玉米等农作物生产安全构成严重威胁?农药防治是草地贪夜蛾应急防控中最有效的手段之一, 但是不合理的使用农药会对环境安全和施药人员带来潜在的风险?本文结合我国田间化学农药防治草地贪夜蛾的实践和效果, 评估了8种田间常用防治药剂的环境风险及其对施药人员的健康风险?推荐甲氨基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐?乙基多杀菌素?氯虫苯甲酰胺?虱螨脲作为草地贪夜蛾应急防控的首推农药, 甘蓝夜蛾核型多角体病毒作为首推生物药剂, 高效氯氟氰菊酯和乙酰甲胺磷须谨慎使用?本研究从农药应用风险角度提出了具体的草地贪夜蛾合理用药建议, 以期为草地贪夜蛾的有效安全防控提供科学依据?     

柑橘轮斑病的适生区预测及风险分析

【目的】 柑橘轮斑病（citrus target spot）作为一种新发柑橘病害,造成发病果园严重的经济损失。本研究针对该病害进行适生区预测及风险分析,以便对该病采取及时、有效的管控措施,最终达到降低其流行风险等级,防止病害传播扩展的目的。【方法】 基于环境变量数据和柑橘轮斑病发生分布数据,运用MaxEnt生态位模型模拟预测柑橘轮斑病菌（Pseudofabraea citricarpa）在中国的潜在适生区分布。并通过ROC（receiver operating characteristic）曲线下面积（area under the curve,AUC）评估预测模型的精度,运用正规化训练增益刀切法（regularized training gain）获取气候因子与分布概率间的关系。同时采用有害生物风险分析理论,以有害生物风险分析的规定程序为依据探索柑橘轮斑病病害的风险分析体系和评价值的计算方法,对评价指标进行定性分析,进而量化评价值。在建立综合评价模型的基础上,计算柑橘轮斑病风险性危害值,最后对病害的风险性危害值进行评价。【结果】 柑橘轮斑病菌MaxEnt模型预测结果的平均AUC值为0.998,表明预测结果精度高。柑橘轮斑病菌的潜在适生区面积约占全国面积12.19%,高适生区、中适生区、低适生区各占全国面积约2.85%、3.99%、5.35%。高、中适生区主要集中于长江中上游柑橘优势区及其周边。其中,高适生区主要集中在四川、重庆、陕西南部,以及贵州、湖北等少量地区。中、低适生区是高适生区的外围扩展。通过MaxEnt模型正规化训练增益刀切法获取的环境变量重要性分析结果表明,最冷季度平均温度（Bio11）、最干季度平均温度（Bio9）、最冷月最低温（Bio6）是影响柑橘轮斑病菌分布的3个关键环境因子,这意味着低温、干冷季节柑橘轮斑病发生可能性大。风险分析最终创建出5个准则层、13个指标层的多指标综合评价体系,并对各指标层定量与定性分析,柑橘轮斑病在我国的风险性危害值（R值）为2.08,处于高度风险等级,对长江中上游及湖北西部-湖南西部两大柑橘产区的潜在危害最大。【结论】 柑橘轮斑病风险性较高,需要尽快建立监测体系,针对病害采取有效控制措施,阻止病害在长江中上游柑橘优势区及相邻柑橘产区传播。     

Public perceptions and attitudes toward green infrastructure on buildings: The case of the metropolitan area of Athens,Greece

As the impact of green space shrinkage in urban centers becomes obvious, local and regional authorities must adopt environmental planning policies that can help create new green areas to ensure a good quality of life for citizens, along with the rehabilitation of the natural environment. One approach is the promotion of green infrastructure on buildings, including multi-dwelling apartment buildings. In order to effectively promote green infrastructure on buildings, it is essential to comprehend public attitudes toward green infrastructure, so that suitable and effective strategies can be implemented by policy makers. In this study, eight hundred respondents were asked to provide their views on green infrastructure on buildings, on construction that should take place on blocks of apartments in order to accommodate green infrastructure and on the related benefits that may arise from creating green spaces on buildings. A structured questionnaire and stratified sampling were used for the interviews, which were conducted with apartment owners in two regional units of Athens. The results showed that most citizens are willing to proceed with the installation of a green roof, trellis or vertical garden, in order to improve the aesthetics and functionality of the building they live in. Most of the respondents are not familiar with the energy savings that may occur from the installation of a green roof, vertical trellis or garden and wish for a subsidy from the state in order to implement green building solutions. To conclude, the participants in our study are not environmentally aware, since they are not interested in energy conservation but only about the aesthetics of their building; furthermore, they expect to receive financial support from the state in order to make any changes to their home.     

基于WOFOST模型的辽宁省春玉米干旱灾损风险评估

利用锦州农业气象试验站的作物生长发育和土壤实测数据对WOFOST模型水分胁迫模块进行了调参，适用性验证表明，WOFOST模型适用于辽宁省春玉米生长发育和产量的模拟，辽宁省春玉米受干旱的影响可以利用WOFOST模型较敏感地反映出来。利用调参后的WOFOST模型模拟了全生育期及出苗~拔节、拔节~抽雄、抽雄~乳熟和乳熟~成熟各阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景对辽宁省春玉米产量的影响，并根据模拟结果确定了不同干旱风险等级下辽宁省东、中、西部玉米生产的灾损范围。结果表明：不同生育期发生干旱对产量的影响不同，总体上，抽雄~乳熟期发生干旱的影响最大，其次是拔节~抽雄期，而出苗~拔节期和乳熟~成熟期发生干旱对产量的影响较小，全省春玉米在抽雄~乳熟期发生重旱的减产风险达30%~70%；在相同干旱水平下，不同区域受影响程度也不同，在全生育期及各生育阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景下，干旱导致的减产率总体上表现为由东部向西部地区逐渐加重的趋势，在全生育期重旱情景下，辽宁省东部的春玉米减产率为40%~75%，中部为60%~90%，西部达65%~95%。     

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.